Clusters of strong thunderstorms are likely Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially from the Midlands to the Atlantic seaboard. A few of the storms are capable of producing flash flooding and strong or even damaging wind gusts.
Rain showers over the Upstate region Tuesday morning are likely to keep temperatures cooler and the air more stable there. While a brief strong storm cannot be ruled out over the Upstate Tuesday afternoon, greater daytime heating and stronger storm potential is more likely over the Midlands, Pee Dee, Lowcountry, and Grand Strand areas. A humid and unstable air mass will be in place increasing the risk for thunderstorms as a cold front approaches the region from the west.
Rainfall totals are likely to stay below 1 inch on average statewide; however, locally heavy thunderstorms could produce rainfall rates of 1.5 inches per hour in a few locations. Because of the heavy rain this past weekend from Claudette, areas receiving heavy rainfall rates are more prone to flash flooding Tuesday afternoon and early evening.
The front is forecast to stall just south of the state on Wednesday. Somewhat drier air will filter into the state, so the risk of flash flooding and strong thunderstorms is lower than Tuesday. Still, scattered downpours are possible, especially closer to the stalling frontal zone near the Savannah River and in the Lowcountry.
