UPDATE 4:00 PM EDT: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the Upstate region and northern parts of the Midlands and Pee Dee, valid until 11:00 PM EDT Tuesday.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to develop from west to east during the evening, beginning in the Upstate areas. A few thunderstorms have the potential to produce large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.
Here are the most likely times of arrival for showers or thunderstorms for select locations across the state:
5 - 7 PM EDT: Western Upstate, including Greenville, Seneca and Spartanburg.
6-8 PM EDT: Rock Hill, York and Lancaster.
8 - 10 PM EDT: Bennettsville, Florence and Chesterfield.
The Palmetto State will see the return of strong thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon which may have the potential to produce damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center issued a “slight risk" (risk level 2 out of 5) for northern parts of Upstate and the Midlands; along with northwestern parts of Pee Dee. Central parts of South Carolina are under a "marginal risk" (level 1 out of 5).
A deepening low pressure system was located over the Tennessee Valley Tuesday morning, with a warm front stretching eastward over Georgia and Tennessee. This warm front is expected to lift north and push east which will allow it to slide through South Carolina beginning Tuesday afternoon and into the evening.
Strong to severe storms have the potential to flourish beginning Tuesday afternoon and early evening in the Upstate area where better surface instability is expected to develop. Strong atmospheric shear, which contributed to Monday night’s outbreak in the Upstate area, continues to be in place around the region which will help to ignite some strong storms.
These storms will begin to develop from west to east and enter into the northern Midlands late Tuesday afternoon and the northwest Pee Dee area closer to midnight.
Large hail, damaging winds, and isolated flooding could occur with some of these strong thunderstorms. Additionally, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
A cold front, associated with the low pressure system, will move across the area Tuesday night and into Wednesday taking the showers and thunderstorms away from the area after the midnight hours. Cool and drier conditions will follow the passage of the front beginning Wednesday morning.