tropical weather

South Carolina has seen just three June tropical cyclone landfalls since 1851, with no system stronger than a Category 1 hurricane.

During an average year, the Atlantic Basin sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The list of names for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season starts with Arthur.

NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season predicts below-normal activity as an impending El Niño will lead to increased wind shear across the basin.

The National Hurricane Center released its first daily outlook for the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf on Friday which showed no tropical activity was expected over the next week.

The first named cyclone in the Atlantic basin typically forms around June 20, with meteorologists tracking the first hurricane by Aug. 11. The first named storm will be Arthur.

With the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season less than a month away, South Carolina officials are urging residents to prepare now as part of Hurricane Preparedness Month.

Forecasters expect tropical cyclone activity could resemble seasons in 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023. El Nino plays a prominent role in each of the seasons.

La Niña officially emerged in September 2025 and lasted until April. Neutral conditions are present, but a El Niño is expected to emerge later in 2026.

Colorado State University’s 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook calls for below-normal activity across the Atlantic basin due to a likely transition into an El Niño.

The National Hurricane Center is rolling out upgraded products for the 2026 hurricane season, including a redesigned cone graphic, new storm surge tools and improved access for mobile users.