Tropical Storm Imelda is forecast to remain well offshore the Carolinas, but the system will still help enhance rainfall, produce rough surf and lead to coastal flooding this week.
Imelda strengthened into a tropical storm on Sunday and is expected to become a hurricane as it makes its eastward turn and heads in the general direction of Bermuda.
If the cyclone remains on its forecast track, it will pass the Palmetto State between 200 to 400 miles offshore, but that does not mean there won’t be local impacts.
Precipitation associated with a stalled frontal boundary along the coast, combined with tropical moisture from Imelda, began impacting coastal communities over the weekend and will increase in coverage and intensity during the first half of the week.
Upstate communities along the Interstate 85 corridor are expected to see the least amount of rainfall, with totals staying under a quarter of an inch.
Computer forecast models show communities along the Interstate 20 corridor, such as Aiken, Columbia and Florence, receiving a bit more precipitation, with totals approaching an inch by midweek.
The heaviest rain is expected to fall along the Interstate 95 corridor and the coast, where 1 to 3 inches of precipitation is possible through Wednesday.
Flooding will be possible if heavy rain coincides with high tides, which in Charleston occur around 1-3 a.m. and 1-3 p.m., while in Myrtle Beach high tides are closer to 2-4 a.m. and 2-4 p.m. time periods.
Tidal projections indicate that water levels may run 1 to 3 feet above normal, which can lead to minor flooding along the coast.
Significant beach and marine impacts expected
The combination of the frontal boundary, Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane Humberto, which is less than 500 miles from Bermuda, will lead to dangerous beach conditions for the entire week.
National Weather Service meteorologists have issued Small Craft Advisories, rip current alerts and Gale Watches for the entire coastline and offshore waters to warn beachgoers and mariners about the hazardous conditions.
Seas are expected to reach 4 to 6 feet Monday, with higher values on Tuesday as Imelda makes its closest approach.
The National Hurricane Center reports that 10 to 20 percent of all cyclone-related deaths are linked to rip currents.
Even outside of Hurricane Erin in August, two people along the Eastern Seaboard were killed by dangerous surf despite the cyclone staying hundreds of miles offshore.
Many beaches staffed by lifeguards employ a color-coded flag system to indicate water safety conditions.
A red flag warns of strong surf and high risk, while double red flags mean the water is closed to swimmers.
Some beaches also use purple flags to alert the public to dangerous marine life such as jellyfish, Portuguese man o’ war and even sharks.
Conditions are expected to improve across inland communities by Tuesday, while coastal areas may not see relief until Wednesday, when a ridge of high pressure builds in from the north.
A look at what else is brewing in the tropics
Elsewhere in the tropics, Hurricane Humberto reached Category 5 strength over the weekend in the central Atlantic and has slowly started to weaken.
The powerful hurricane is moving northwestward around a ridge of high pressure, which will keep the cyclone on a path between the United States and Bermuda.
Bermuda was placed under a Tropical Storm Watch and the system poses no direct threat to the U.S. mainland.
Outside of Imelda and Humberto, no other organized areas of low pressure are being tracked across the Atlantic basin.
Long-range models suggest a disturbed area of weather could develop near or around the Caribbean Sea during October, which is a climatologically active time for hurricanes.
October is historically the third most active month of the Atlantic hurricane season, with activity tapering off during the final month in November.
