Updated October 6, 2026 at 12:51 PM EDT
Republicans are facing plenty of headwinds in this year's midterm elections thanks to a tough economy and the Iran war. Scandal wasn't supposed to be one of them.
Now, several embattled GOP candidates have put what would otherwise be safe red seats in Ohio, North Carolina and Texas in play for Democrats. It could put Republicans' fight to hold onto their slim majority in jeopardy.
In an election year where every seat counts, the GOP's political fortunes could hinge on the extent to which voters are willing to look past controversy.
"If you're a Republican … facing a blue wave, then you really, really, really don't need a scandal," said Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow in governance studies and director of the Center for Effective Public Management at the Brookings Institution. "It's the combination of the two. That's a killer."
In Ohio, domestic violence allegations have swirled around Rep. Max Miller and his bid for reelection in the state's 7th Congressional District.
In North Carolina, Congressman Chuck Edwards dropped out of his race after he faced accusations of sexual harassment, forcing a last-minute replacement on the ballot.
And in the U.S. Senate race in Texas, an embattled Ken Paxton ousted incumbent John Cornyn despite a long history of personal and political scandals.
Each has denied the allegations against them, but the controversies appear to be taking a toll nevertheless. With the election now in its closing weeks, their seats have all shifted from "likely" or "lean" Republican to toss-ups, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Kamarck said that's a bad sign for the GOP.
"Many of these Senate races are still within the margin of error. Many of the swing House races are in the margin of error," Kamarck said. "Even if 1% of your voters are influenced by a scandal or an alleged scandal, it matters."
Miller has denied the domestic violence allegations from his ex-wife. Democrat Brian Poindexter, an ironworker, is still highlighting the claims in his campaign against Miller.
"We've gotten a lot more liberal on sex issues in terms of politics, but there's still some big no-nos," Kamarck said.
In North Carolina's 11th Congressional District, Edwards dropped his reelection bid after the House Ethics Committee recommended he face a censure vote over allegations of sexual harassment towards two young female staffers. He was replaced with state Rep. Jennifer Balkcom, who is now facing a competitive race against Democrat Jamie Ager, a farmer.
And in Texas, Democrat James Talarico's odds grew after Paxton won the Republican primary runoff in May with President Trump's endorsement.
Paxton, the state's attorney general, has faced criminal indictments for alleged securities fraud, whistleblower allegations and a state impeachment trial for bribery, abuse of power and other allegations. He beat all those efforts, but this past year faced new personal and political controversies, including a messy public divorce and his role in a plea deal that was offered to a defendant in a child sex abuse case.
"In Texas, Ken Paxton is dragging down the entire ticket," said Jessica Taylor, an editor at Cook Political Report.
She says voters could give Paxton enough of a scandal penalty to create a perfect storm for Republicans.
It has put a state President Trump won by 14 points in contention for Democrats, an impact that could go beyond Texas. The party needs to net four seats to win back the Senate.
"Texas could potentially be the pivot state for Senate control," Taylor said.
Cook Political Report projects Senate control as a "toss up," while Democrats are favored to take the House.
Republican strategist Leslie Shedd says campaign spending in the coming days could preview which candidates have the best shot regardless of baggage. National parties are now deciding where to shift resources and where to cut bait, she said.
"I think that right now is the time when tough conversations are happening, really just up and down the beltway," Shedd said.
Shedd notes Democrats have had their share of scandals.
That includes Alaska's Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman trying to unseat incumbent U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan. She was recently accused of being verbally abusive with her staff and pushing one of her employees — claims she denied.
Earlier this year, Maine Democrat Graham Platner ended his campaign for U.S. Senate after facing an allegation of rape from a former partner. His replacement on the ballot, Troy Jackson, has faced the challenge of reenergizing Democratic voters who felt stung by the implosion of Platner's campaign.
Shedd says voter perception of scandal can also shift by district: what may matter in one race in one state may not move the dial in another. In recent years, political scandals have not been the death knell for a campaign as they once were.
"Scandal only applies here if it is impacting internal polling numbers," Shedd said. "And all of this has to do with the viability of the candidate."
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