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SC Dems on defense as GOP aims to flip more Statehouse seats in 2024

The first year of the legislative session is set to end May 11, which is less than a month away. Crossover Day was April 10 which is a time when bills have to clear one chamber to another in order to have a higher chance of making it to the governor’s desk before Sine Die this year.
Gavin Jackson
/
SCETV/SC Public Radio
The first year of the legislative session is set to end May 11, which is less than a month away. Crossover Day was April 10 which is a time when bills have to clear one chamber to another in order to have a higher chance of making it to the governor’s desk before Sine Die this year.

More than 1 million of South Carolina's more than 3.4 million registered voters have cast early ballots in the 2024 general election, according to the State Election Commission.

On the first day of early voting on Oct. 21, the turnout at the Lexington County Voter Registration Office was eyebrow-raising.

There were cars wrapped around the building, stretching up toward the Lizard Thicket restaurant onto the busy thoroughfare.

That was on top of the line of voters heading into the office, which grew every minute.

Many in line said they knew exactly who they planned to vote for president — that’s why they showed up in the first place.

But how will the surge in turnout — more than 1 million of the state's more than 3.4 million registered voters have cast ballots early — affect races for state and local offices like in this Republican-leaning Midlands county, a part of which includes one of the few competitive state Senate contests in South Carolina?

Several voters said that they did not know what state Senate district they lived in.

"I’m not sure, because I moved recently," one man said.

"I don’t, but I am going to go straight Republican," said another voter.

Voters in Lexington County cast ballots at the Lexington County Voter Registration Office on Day One of South Carolina's two-week early voting stretch on Monday, Oct. 21, 2024.
Maayan Schechter
/
SC Public Radio
Voters in Lexington County cast ballots at the Lexington County Voter Registration Office on Day One of South Carolina's two-week early voting stretch on Monday, Oct. 21, 2024.

The general election is on Tuesday, Nov. 5.

And South Carolina, a reliable red state, is poised to go to former President Donald Trump for a third time.

Trump’s strength at the top of the ticket has S.C. Democrats especially anxious.

Four years ago, the party lost five seats in the General Assembly.

Two years later, Republicans clinched a supermajority in the S.C. House after flipping more seats, some in traditional Democratic districts.

If Democrats lose a single Senate seat next week, the GOP will have a supermajority in both chambers.

For state Democratic Party Chairwoman Christale Spain, what victory looks like on Election Day this year is clear.

"They’re trying to knock off some of our incumbent senators, and if we’re able to protect those senators, that is victory for us this cycle," Spain said.

Back in Lexington, Democrats are trying to hold onto a seat that the GOP has been eyeing for years, currently represented by outgoing state Sen. Nikki Setzler, D-Lexington.

With the loss of two veteran senators in Lexington County — Setzler due to retirement and Republican Sen. Katrina Shealy after a June primary loss — Democrats in this district that also includes parts of Calhoun and Richland Counties hope voters here elect Democratic House Rep. Russell Ott over GOP newcomer Jason Guerry.

South Carolina state Sen. Nikki Setzler, D-West Columbia, claps as flowers are presented to his wife before he gave his going away speech after 48 years in the Senate, Wednesday, June 26, 2024, in Columbia, S.C. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Collins)
Jeffrey Collins/AP
/
AP
South Carolina state Sen. Nikki Setzler, D-West Columbia, claps as flowers are presented to his wife before he gave his going away speech after 48 years in the Senate, Wednesday, June 26, 2024, in Columbia, S.C. (AP Photo/Jeffrey Collins)

Due to new district lines drawn by the GOP-controlled Legislature, most Statehouse contests are decided in the June party primaries.

That leaves few competitive races for November, making their outcome critical for Democrats.

After two cycles of major upsets, Democrats are playing aggressive defense.

So, with Trump on the ticket and a state turning more red, that leaves state Republican Party Chairman Drew McKissick feeling confident and able to spread more resources in parts of the state that the party has slowly been picking apart for years.

McKissick recently told SCETV that he's on record saying the party will pick up two state Senate seats and two House seats.

In what districts exactly? McKissick won’t say.

But based on past turnout and where the party has decided to spend its resources, there are signs of where the S.C. Republican Party hopes to solidify and grow its base.

There's the Senate District 36 race between incumbent Sen. Kevin Johnson, D-Clarendon, and Republican challenger Jeff Zell.

State Sen. Mike Fanning, D-Fairfield, faces challenger Everett Stubbs to keep Senate District 17. And there's Senate District 35 to succeed outgoing Sen. Thomas McElveen, a race between former Camden Mayor Jeffrey Graham and GOP challenger Mike Jones.

Even in blue Richland County, Republicans are hoping to take back a Columbia-area swing district and elect former Rep. Kirkman Finlay, who lost that same district in the 2022 midterms to Democrat Heather Bauer, who ran almost entirely on abortion access rights.

"Every vote matters," Bauer said, adding she won by just more than 200 votes in 2022. "It’s going to be just as close this time."

It’s why Democrats statewide have pushed early vote turnout so hard.

And it’s why Republicans are leaning in, too.

Already, one in four registered voters have cast their ballot.

Early voting ends Saturday.

How many SC voters cast early in-person ballots?

Editor's Note: In-person early voting totals will be updated daily. Early voting centers are closed Sunday, Oct. 27, and early voting ends Saturday, Nov. 2. As of Nov. 2, 1,471,663 voters have cast an early ballot in person.

Oct. 21: 126,726

Oct. 22: 127,833

Oct. 23: 128,988

Oct. 24: 127,819

Oct. 25: 134,553

Oct. 26: 90,204

Oct. 28: 130,328

Oct. 29: 123,574

Oct. 30: 117,333

Oct. 31: 110,286

Nov. 1: 134,709

Nov. 2: 119,310

SOURCE: S.C. STATE ELECTION COMMISSION

Maayan Schechter (My-yahn Schek-ter) is a news reporter with South Carolina Public Radio and ETV. She worked at South Carolina newspapers for a decade, previously working as a reporter and then editor of The State’s S.C. State House and politics team, and as a reporter at the Aiken Standard and the Greenville News. She grew up in Atlanta, Georgia, and graduated from the University of North Carolina-Asheville in 2013.