Jeff Huffman
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The 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season was the third most active on record, but Florida was largely spared significant impacts and the last two months of the season were strikingly quiet.
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The coolest air mass of the fall season to date has arrived in the Palmetto State, and multiple nights in a row could be frosty for some.
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Heavy rain is likely across the coastal plain early in the day Monday, but a few stronger storms may develop across the northern half of the state later in the day.
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Sam rapidly intensified overnight and is forecast to become a major hurricane over the weekend. While models suggests Sam may stay out to sea, it is still too soon to credibly predict whether there will be impacts to South Carolina next week.
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Tropical Depression Eighteen formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean Wednesday afternoon and is likely to become a long-lived hurricane. It is not possible yet to be confident this storm will turn out to sea like Peter and Rose, or Hurricane Larry before it.
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Tropical moisture and a slow-moving front will team up to produce at least two days of unsettled weather across the Palmetto State. Periods of heavy rain could cause flash flooding in the LowCountry starting Monday afternoon, followed by a potential flood risk in parts of the Upstate and PeeDee regions Tuesday.
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Larry is likely to become a major hurricane this weekend over the central Atlantic, but there are no tropical threats to South Carolina.
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The disturbance in the northeast Caribbean was upgraded to Tropical Storm Fred late Tuesday evening just south of Puerto Rico. The storm has the potential to affect a large portion of Florida this weekend with heavy rain and high winds, although the magnitude, location and timing of those impacts are still uncertain.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six will be approaching Puerto Rico Tuesday, then the Florida Straits by week's end.
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Uncertainty is "larger than usual" in the long-range forecast for Hurricane Elsa, according to the National Hurricane Center. However, forecasters say storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts are all possible across portions of Florida early next week.