Update as of 5:35 PM Sunday:
Fred has strengthened slightly and is likely to strengthen more on its way to the Florida Panhandle late Monday. An outer rain band produced a wind gust to near 60 mph at St. Petersburg, FL shortly before 4 o'clock Sunday afternoon.
The Storm Surge Warning has been extended east to Yankeetown, FL, in the Big Bend area.
Increasing moisture well ahead of Fred will increase the number of showers and storms over South Carolina on Monday, but the main rain shield attached to Fred is likely to hold off until Monday night and Tuesday. Scattered pockets of flash flooding appear to be the main hazard. A brief, isolated tornado or two cannot entirely be ruled out Monday night or Tuesday.
Fred is forecast to move away from the state by Wednesday, but lingering moisture means scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into midweek.
Update as of 11:55 AM Sunday:
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for parts of the Florida Big Bend. 2 to 4 feet of water above normally dry ground is likely somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for much of the Florida Panhandle, where tropical storm force winds are a good possibility Monday and Monday night.
Some strengthening is forecast before Fred makes landfall Monday evening in the Florida Panhandle. There has been a shift back to the east in the forecast track. Increasing moisture well ahead of Fred will increase the number of showers and storms over South Carolina on Monday, but the main rain shield attached to Fred is likely to hold off until Monday night and Tuesday. Scattered pockets of flash flooding appear to be the main hazard. A brief, isolated tornado or two cannot entirely be ruled out Monday night or Tuesday.
Fred is forecast to move away from the state by Wednesday, but lingering moisture means scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into midweek.
Original story from Saturday afternoon:
Strong wind shear and interaction with Cuba caused Fred to weaken to a tropical wave late Saturday morning. The National Hurricane Center says it could regain tropical storm status late Sunday in the Gulf of Mexico.
Increasing moisture ahead of the tropical wave is spreading heavy rain into parts of South Florida Saturday afternoon. Regardless of Fred's intensity in the Gulf of Mexico, heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding over what has already been a wet summer in much of the Sunshine State is the biggest threat the system poses.
The latest forecast brings Fred to tropical storm strength before making landfall Monday night somewhere between the Mississippi Gulf coast and the Florida Panhandle. Isolated tornadoes are still possible this weekend over the Florida Peninsula before the threat spread northward and westward to include the Panhandle Sunday into at least Monday.
Fred is likely to weaken over the Tennessee Valley early Wednesday; however, locally heavy rain is possible over the Palmetto State. A front is expected to trigger afternoon thunderstorms over the Upstate Saturday and then over the remainder of the state Sunday into Monday. Increasing moisture ahead of Fred will begin to affect the state Tuesday into Wednesday. This may cause pockets of flash flooding where the heaviest thunderstorms end up, which is not all that unusual in mid August. The rain may take the edge off the heat that is in place over South Carolina this weekend.
