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System Likely To Develop East Of Carolinas As Nicholas Dumps More Rain On The Gulf

Tropical Outlook
National Hurricane Center

Update as of 9:30am Thursday:
The National Hurricane Center still says there is a high chance that a depression will form Friday or Saturday from a low pressure area that is expected to pass east of the North Carolina Outer Banks. It is likely to turn out to sea over the weekend.

There are two tropical waves that have a chance of developing in the eastern Atlantic. The first one is about 800 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and the Hurricane Center it has a high chance of developing into a depression over the weekend or early next week. It is likely to be just east or northeast of the Lesser Antilles by Tuesday. The second system is emerging from the coast of Africa and it has a chance to become a depression early next week near the Cape Verde Islands.

Original story from Wednesday morning:
Flash Flood Watches continue from Louisiana eastward into the Florida Panhandle thanks to heavy rain bands from Tropical Depression Nicholas. An area of disturbed weather located a few hundred miles north of the Bahamas is likely to become a depression well east of South Carolina Thursday or Friday.

Numerous flash floods are possible in the Florida Panhandle, along with the risk for a brief, isolated tornado or waterspout associated with rain bands moving inland from the Gulf Wednesday and Thursday. A moist atmosphere is expected to persist through the weekend, which makes at least afternoon and evening thunderstorms likely, with some continued risk for areas of flooding.

The National Hurricane Center has flagged three other areas for tropical development through the weekend. An area of low pressure (called "94L" for tracking purposes) is located north of the Bahamas. It is forecast to become a depression or named storm as it moves northward near or just offshore the North Carolina Outer Banks on Thursday. Most of the effects are likely to be offshore, but an increase in rip currents and surf are likely from North Carolina northward to the Mid Atlantic and New England coastlines late this week.

A strong tropical wave that meteorologists are calling "95L" for tracking and modeling reasons is a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It, too, is likely to become a depression or named storm on Thursday or Friday. 95L is forecast to remain over the tropical Atlantic over the weekend. Its long-term future is highly uncertain: some models forecast strong wind shear as it approaches the Caribbean next week. If those models are correct, the system could weaken before reaching the islands. There are other models that forecast 95L to eventually turn northward to the north of the Caribbean. And still, there are a few others that do not develop the system at all.

Another tropical wave is projected to move off the coast of Africa by Friday and has a chance to become a depression this weekend. Early indications are it will turn northwestward and not present a threat to land areas after it passes the Cape Verde Islands.