The flow ahead of an approaching cold front will help trigger showers and thunderstorms across South Carolina beginning Thursday and continuing into Friday, with rain chances that are expected to linger into the weekend, setting up what could become a complex forecast.
For some communities, the frontal passage will bring the first meaningful chance of rain in several weeks.
A few of the storms that develop could become strong to severe, though the most widespread impacts are likely to come from heavy rainfall and winds versus any type of hail or tornadoes.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire state under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, which ranks as a 1 out of 5 on its risk scale.
Because the bulk of precipitation will likely occur after peak daytime heating, a significant severe weather outbreak it not anticipated, but some storms will still be capable of producing wind gusts of 58 mph or greater, which can down trees and powerlines.
Where thunderstorms train over the same areas, localized flooding could also become an issue, but for many parts of the state, the rainfall will be welcome news.
More than 70% of South Carolina is currently considered to be unusually dry, with some regions facing moderate drought conditions.
The increase in cloud cover and rainfall will also allow temperatures to drop closer to, or even slightly below, seasonal averages - providing relief from the fall heat wave.
Typically, after a front passes through an area, drier air filters in and rain chances decrease, but that is not expected to happen this time, as the region will find itself in a complex weather scenario.
The cold front that will clear the coast on Friday is expected to stall just offshore, which will help keep moisture in close proximity.
Forecast modes show the development of an upper-level low over the Southeast could also help funnel additional moisture into the Carolinas.
This could mean a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the weekend, with the highest coverage likely south of Interstate 20.
Depending on the position of the frontal boundary and the upper-level low, these features could influence the future movement of a tropical wave identified as Invest 94L near the northern Caribbean.
The National Hurricane Center has placed the odds of development for the disturbance at around 70% over the next week, but whether it will simply serve as a coastal nuisance with heightened swells and increased rip currents, or develop into something more significant, remains to be seen.
A path of the tropical disturbance well offshore would limit impacts to the Palmetto State, but if the system were to find itself closer to the Southeast coastline, impacts would arrive early next week.
