As the 183-day Atlantic hurricane season approaches its end in November, the odds of being struck by a tropical system often fade well before the calendar says the season is over.
According to historical data from NOAA, 41 tropical cyclones have come within 30 miles or less of South Carolina during the months of October and November since records began in the mid-1800s.
The latest landfalling hurricane was an unnamed cyclone that struck near Myrtle Beach on October 31, 1899.
The tropical cyclone originally developed in the Caribbean Sea near Jamaica on Oct. 26 before being pulled quickly northward.
According to a National Weather Service report, coastal flooding was significant, with damage estimates topping $200,000.
While there have been impacts from tropical systems in November, none of the storm systems made landfall along the South Carolina coast. Instead, all made landfall in another state before their remnants traveled over the region.
Historically, November ranks fifth among the six months of the Atlantic hurricane season for tropical cyclone activity, with only June producing fewer storms on average.
Most late-season cyclones form in the Caribbean Sea or the far western Atlantic, where waters remain warm enough to support some level of organization.
Cooler sea surface temperatures, increasing upper-level wind shear, and intrusions of dry continental air usually combine to suppress tropical cyclone formation.
According to historical NOAA data, a November impact by a tropical system on South Carolina occurs about once every six decades, while an October impact takes place about once every five years.
Hurricane Kate holds record for latest U.S. strike of the season
Back in 1985, an unusually strong ridge of high pressure over the southwestern Atlantic prevented autumn cold fronts from sweeping far southward. The setup allowed a pocket of tropical moisture to persist and eventually organize into Tropical Storm Kate.
Kate strengthened into a hurricane near the Bahamas before striking Cuba and then emerging into the Gulf.
Once over the unusually warm Gulf waters, Kate intensified into a Category 3 cyclone with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph.
The cyclone only slightly weakened to a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall southwest of Tallahassee, Florida.
Widespread power outages and heavy rainfall were reported along the northern Gulf Coast, with damage at the time estimated at around $700 million - equivalent to roughly $1.9 billion in today’s dollars.
Despite the destruction, the name “Kate” was not retired from the list of Atlantic storm names maintained by the World Meteorological Organization.
The name has since been reused several times, appearing in the 2003, 2015 and 2021 hurricane seasons, and is scheduled to appear again in 2027.
Off-season tropical cyclone formation
Beyond November, every month outside the six-month hurricane season has recorded at least one tropical system, including December.
Roughly 3% of all tropical cyclones since the mid-1800s have formed outside the season’s start and end dates, according to NOAA records.
The month of May has seen at least 42 tropical storms and hurricanes, while December ranks second with 27 tracked systems.
The last time there was a December formation was in 2013, when a short-lived tropical storm developed south of the Azores Islands in the eastern Atlantic.
