With La Niña conditions now present across parts of the Pacific, the developing pattern could play a role in shaping the weather during the final month of meteorological fall.
November in South Carolina is typically one of the driest months of the year, when the first frosts and freezes are reported across much of the state.
Based on climatology and the latest NOAA outlook, this year doesn’t appear that it’ll deviate much from those long-term norms.
NOAA forecasters widely expect temperatures to remain near average, but the lack of precipitation will likely be the most noticeable feature as the month progresses.
The combination of ongoing dry conditions and additional rainfall deficits could further exacerbate the drought situation.
Currently, more than 60% of the Palmetto State is classified as unusually dry, with several pockets considered to be in a severe drought.
These dry conditions have already fueled significant wildfires earlier in the year and created some hardships for farmers.
On the temperature front, November is the month that sees the largest decline in both daytime highs and overnight lows.
For instance, Greenville typically records high temperatures in the upper 60s early in the month, while areas along the I-95 corridor and the coast often reach the mid-70s.
By the end of November, those averages fall by 6 to 11 degrees, with the most dramatic drops across the Upstate, while coastal areas feel more moderation from the warm Atlantic Ocean.
Despite occasional warmth, the weeks often feel like a roller coaster, with several mild days followed by a brief cold snap.
If a typical November unfolds, nearly the entire state will experience at least one frost and freeze, except for immediate coastal zones, particularly near Hilton Head Island.
The arrival of colder weather traditionally marks the end of the growing season, which began around March 1 and won’t resume again until early spring.
The North Pole’s Polar Vortex - a large area of low pressure that often dictates how intense cold spells are, can be influential in any winter-like weather, but long-range models remain split on how influential it’ll be before December.
La Niña Novembers of the past
Since 2000, at least 11 Novembers have occurred during a La Niña pattern.
Historically, these months have been characterized by below-average precipitation, and temperatures that are slightly above normal.
This overall pattern hasn’t been limited to South Carolina - most of the Lower 48 states have exhibited similar anomalies with temperatures and precipitation dating back decades, according climatological data.
There are a few exceptions - the Pacific Northwest often ends up cooler than average, while areas along the U.S.-Canadian border can see above-average precipitation.
NOAA meteorologists described this November’s outlook as more confident than in previous months, when tropical systems could have influenced the overall pattern.
Meteorological winter begins on December 1, with the shortest day of the year occurring on December 21.
Beyond the winter solstice, daylight will slowly increase again, but the added sunlight will do little to ease Old Man Winter, which typically peaks in January and early February.
