As the first month of meteorological winter gets underway, NOAA forecasters widely expect December to trend warmer and wetter than average across South Carolina.
Even though December began chilly, long-range climate guidance show that much of the state is positioned for a milder-than-usual endgame by the time the month wraps up.
All of South Carolina falls within NOAA’s “lean above” to “likely above” categories for the probability of experiencing warmer-than-normal temperatures.
The outlook does not mean cold snaps are off the table but any stretches of colder weather will likely be short-lived.
If the forecast verifies, these limited cold spells will not have enough staying power, allowing the state to finish December on the warmer side.
A warmer-than-average December would also continue what has been a warm year overall for the Palmetto State.
According to NOAA climate data, state is closing out what is around its 26th warmest year out of 131 years of records.
On the precipitation front, forecasters expect December’s rainfall totals to finish above normal, which will come as welcome news given the state’s ongoing drought.
South Carolina entered meteorological winter with roughly 70% of the state classified as abnormally dry and nearly a quarter experiencing drought conditions.
Additional rainfall throughout the month from passing storm systems will help reduce the scope of the dryness.
The overall winter outlook resembles a fairly classic La Niña pattern, especially on the temperature side, where southeastern states typically see mild conditions. However, the precipitation outlook is somewhat more energized than a textbook La Niña setup.
The current La Niña event emerged in September and is expected to be short-lived, with forecasts suggesting a transition back to neutral ENSO conditions during the first half of 2026.
The status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or what is commonly referred to as the ENSO, significantly influences seasonal weather patterns, affecting everything from rainfall distribution to ocean temperatures.
While weather outcomes are never guaranteed, one thing is certain: La Niña will continue through the holiday period, which includes:
- Dec. 15–22: Hanukkah
- Dec. 25: Christmas Day
- Dec. 26–Jan. 1: Kwanzaa
- Dec. 31: New Year’s Eve
With December starting off on a cool note, the anticipated warmup later in the month means holiday temperatures may fall on the milder side.
Weather patterns often persist for several days to a few weeks at a time, so any potential shift after the current cold spell would place mid-to-end month in the time period for a potential change.
Guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which is commonly referred to as the Euro model, supports this evolving pattern.
Early in the month, the combination of disturbances along with a disruption of the polar vortex has allowed colder-than-normal air to spill southward into the Carolinas and much of the country.
But by mid- to late December, the Euro suggests a shift toward a more southwesterly upper-level flow, which typically ushers in warmer air from the Pacific.
It is too early to pinpoint the exact weather conditions expected on Christmas Day, but if conditions manage to land near seasonal norms, most South Carolinians can expect morning lows in the 30s and afternoon highs climbing into the 50s.