Heavy rain is expected to overspread much of South Carolina over the first weekend of 2026 as a strengthening storm system taps into deep moisture across the Southeast, bringing beneficial rainfall to the region.
Cloud cover is forecast to steadily increase on Friday as the system approaches, with most of the precipitation falling on Saturday.
Forecast models show a widespread half inch to one inch of rainfall across much of the state, with locally higher amounts.
The greatest rainfall totals are expected between Columbia and Charleston, where isolated areas could see accumulations between 2 and 4 inches.
Temperatures will remain on the warmer side, which will keep precipitation in the form of rain versus any type of sleet or snow that is always possible during the winter months.
With the warmer air in place, it is not out of the question there could be a rumble of thunder or two, but all of the activity is expected to remain below severe weather criteria due to limited instability.
Severe weather can occur year-round in South Carolina, including during the first month of the year, but January is more commonly known for having a higher frequency frozen precipitation events than severe weather outbreaks.
Rainfall coverage is expected to decrease later Saturday and into Sunday as the strengthening storm system pushes off the Carolina coast, taking most of the cloud cover along with it.
The precipitation is welcome news, as much of the Palmetto State ended 2025 either unusually dry or facing drought conditions.
According to the latest drought monitor, the most extensive drought conditions are located in the Lowcountry and the Upstate.
Rainfall from the system is expected to help reduce drought conditions in many areas, though additional rain will still be needed to fully eliminate the drought across the state.
Typically, January falls in the middle of the pack when it comes to precipitation in South Carolina.
Most weather observation sites average between 3 and 4 inches of rainfall during the month, with communities in the higher elevations of the Upstate seeing beneficial snows.
Despite the expected heavy rainfall, widespread flooding is not anticipated due to the ongoing drought conditions and waterways that can handle runoff.
Brief periods of standing water are still possible in areas that experience the heavier downpours or where the rainfall trains over the same area, particularly around Orangeburg and the junction of Interstate 26 and Interstate 95.
Behind the storm system, there won't be too much in the way of cooler air with lows in the 40s and highs 60s to start off the first workweek of 2026.