A widespread rainfall event is expected to produce much-needed precipitation across the Carolinas through the first half of the weekend, offering at least some relief from the dry conditions.
Forecast models continue to indicate that the time period from Friday night into Saturday will be the best opportunity for meaningful rainfall.
While recent storm systems have largely underperformed or bypassed the state to the north, the setup appears to be more favorable for a widespread event.
Forecast models indicate that the heaviest precipitation will fall over the Lowcountry, with totals gradually decreasing farther inland toward the Upstate.
Rainfall totals could approach one inch in parts of southwestern South Carolina, with most other areas clocking in at around half an inch.
While these totals are not overly impressive, they would represent the heaviest rainfall event in weeks.
Despite the presence of abundant moisture, the system is not expected to produce severe thunderstorms, as atmospheric instability will remain rather limited.
The expected rainfall comes at a critical time for South Carolina and the Southeast, as drought conditions have intensified over recent months.
According to the latest drought monitor, around 80% of the state is either dealing with extreme or exceptional drought conditions.
Even with the anticipated rainfall, the storm system is unlikely to significantly improve the drought situation.
At least 6 to 12 inches of rain over an extended period would be needed to eliminate growing deficits - a scenario that is not in the extended forecast.
Due to recent rainfall, the South Carolina Forestry Commission lifted the burn ban for counties across the Upstate and will lift the measure across the entire state on Friday.
“Many areas of the state have seen rainfall this week, and higher relative humidity and fuel moisture continue to mitigate significant fire potential,” SCFC Fire Chief Darryl Jones said in a statement. “Though we expect even more rain across more of the state in the next week, people who choose to burn outdoors should still exercise vigilance as the rain we have received has not changed the state’s drought status.”