Weather

The Tropical Atlantic Ocean is quiet, which is typical for mid-June. However, uncertainty looms on how busy the season may become by August.

Drier weather has returned to South Carolina, and it could last for several days.

Last week's rain certainly eased drought conditions across some areas of the Palmetto State, but more rain is still needed in parts of the Lowcountry and Pee Dee regions.

Flash flooding is possible in the South Carolina Lowcountry Tuesday night and Wednesday, thanks to multiple rounds of showers and t-storms likely to hit the same areas over a short amount of time.

The risk of repeating rounds of heavy rain has forecasters in the South Carolina Upstate concerned about flash flooding.

Friday 12 pm Update: 

Rain showers have been widespread this morning along the border with North Carolina. Another round of scattered thunderstorms is expected across much of the state Friday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has placed the entire state in a "marginal risk" for severe thunderstorms. Forecasters at the center say the air may become unstable enough for a couple of thunderstorms to produce damaging winds and a brief, isolated tornado. For the most part, the storms are expected to mainly be a localized flooding threat with downpours. 

The drought in South Carolina's Lowcountry is now considered “severe”, but that's about to come to an abrupt end.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across South Carolina today as plenty of moisture and energy flows in from the west.

Isolated thunderstorms are beginning to pop up over the western Blue Ridge and far southern coast. These storms will become more scattered toward the end of the workday and could dot the state by the evening commute.

These thunderstorms could be strong and produce small hail, gusty winds, heavy downpours, and flash flooding. The risk of isolated tornadoes is low.  

Saturday marks the official start of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and the second named storm of the year could already be developing. However, it poses no current threat to the United States.

You might hear a collective sigh of relief across the Palmetto State this weekend. A cold - or maybe we should call it “not as hot” - front will finally bring an end to the historic heat wave that has scorched South Carolina.

The Palmetto State will be sizzling this Memorial Day Weekend, and the heat could be historic. Record highs dating back to the 1950's and 60's are in jeopardy of being broken or tied in several cities by Monday.

Triple-digit temperatures are forecast across the Midlands starting Saturday, with a high up to 101° possible in Columbia by Memorial Day. Even temperatures across the Upstate are expected to shatter records. Forecast highs in Spartanburg are 3 to 5 degrees above the daily records Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

UPDATE 7 PM MONDAY: The National Hurricane Center has begun advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea, the first named storm of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season. In a special statement issued just before 6 pm EDT, forecasters concluded that data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance indicated there was a “well-defined” center to the area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda.

As of Monday evening, Subtropical Storm Andrea had winds up to 40 mph and was located 335 miles southwest of Bermuda. The official forecast for Andrea called for slight strengthening Tuesday, followed by rapid weakening and dissipation near or just to the south of Bermuda Wednesday. Subtropical Storm Andrea is not a threat to the United States.

Thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage and small hail are expected across portions of South Carolina Saturday.

The activity will develop by mid-afternoon across the Midlands and Upstate regions as the atmosphere destabilizes during the warmest part of the day. More than one round of thunderstorm activity is possible in some areas through early evening.

Hurricane season is still a month away, but we're already watching a disturbance in the Atlantic.

Update at 4:00 PM: Tornado Watches continue for most of the state, but the watch has been canceled for parts of the Low Country (including Charleston, Beaufort, Walterboro, and Hilton Head).

Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will move through the Grand Strand area between 4 and 6 PM. Another line of thunderstorms from near Greenville/Spartanburg southward to near North Augusta is moving northeast and may affect the Columbia and Rock Hill areas between 5 and 6 PM. So far, this second line of thunderstorms has not been as damaging as the first line. However, a Tornado Watch remains in effect and an isolated tornado or damaging winds cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain and lightning are still a threat with these storms.

UPDATE 1 PM SUNDAY: A Tornado Watch was issued by the National Weather Service for the Midlands and Upstate regions of South Carolina until 7 pm. The watch includes the cities of Columbia, Greenville, and Anderson, SC. 

UPDATE 3 PM MONDAY

Fewer hurricanes are expected this year than the last two seasons, according to renowned researcher Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University. However, both of those seasons far outperformed expectations.

Even Phil doesn't have much confidence in his forecast this time of year.

“So our skill in April is modest, and that's because the hurricane season doesn't start until June and then doesn't ramp up until August. So obviously there's a lot that could change in the atmosphere and ocean,” he says.

A coastal storm is forecast to form late tonight near the Northeast Florida coast and intensify as it hugs the South Carolina coast Tuesday morning. The impacts from the storm will be felt across most of the state, ranging from heavy rain and gusty winds over the Midlands, Low Country, and Pee Dee regions to the chance of snow or sleet mixing in with the rain over parts of the Upstate.

The sun was in rare form Monday across South Carolina. It was out the entire day!

Much of the state has experienced a prolong period of gloomy skies since the middle of the month. Columbia, for example, hadn't had a day with more than 50 percent sunshine since February 14th. The pattern finally broke Monday, as high pressure nosed in from the Ohio Valley and allowed drier, cooler air to spill in from the north.

Keep the umbrellas, rain jackets and galoshes handy. The extended forecast in upstate South Carolina is for rain, more rain. And then, more rain.

So much water may fall that flash flooding will be a concern, forecasters at the National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg office said in a special weather statement Sunday.

Scientists at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center have officially declared an El Niño. It is a natural warming over the water in the eastern and/or Central Pacific Ocean that occurs every 2 to 7 years. The El Niño is expected to be weak and forecasters at the government agency say there's only slightly greater than an even bet that it will even last through the spring.

Flash flooding and tornadoes are the remaining risks from Tropical Storm Michael as it exits the Palmetto State Thursday afternoon. The heaviest rain is likely to fall in northern sections of the midlands and upstate regions, whereas the tornado risk is greatest in the PeeDee low country through early afternoon.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring four systems in the Atlantic Basin, two of which have a greater than 50 percent chance of developing in the next five days according to an outlook they issued Friday afternoon. None, however, are an immediate threat to South Carolina.

Updated 11:40 a.m. ET Sunday

Florence weakened to a tropical depression Sunday morning, the National Hurricane Center said, but flooding continued to be a major danger throughout the Carolinas.

North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper said the storm is more dangerous now than when it made landfall. "Flood waters are still raging across parts of our state, and the risk to life is rising with the angry waters," Cooper said in a news conference on Sunday.

"The threat of flooded roads keeps spreading," Cooper continued.

There IS an end in sight. It’s just not anytime soon for those that need it the most.

Even though all tropical storm warnings have been cancelled, the persistent heavy rain and flash flooding from Tropical Storm Florence will continue for several more hours in portions of North and South Carolina.

The heavy rain and flood risk will then spread across the Mid-State of North Carolina and areas along and north of I-20 in South Carolina Saturday Night.  

Hurricane-force winds roared through the cracks around Randy Wood's garage door, shook his house, and stripped his property's pine trees, strewing one limb after the next in his yard. Accompanying the roar of the storm was the steady ticking whirr of Wood's generator and his own matter-of-fact voice, tinged by his Carolinas accent, explaining why he decided to stay in his home in Conway, S.C., directly in the path of Hurricane Florence.

Reports from Santee Cooper indicated that as of 3:30 p.m. Friday, some 38,900 Santee Cooper retail customers were without power due to early impacts from Hurricane Florence. Earlier in the afternoon outages peaked at 39,200, and crews were able to restore about 9,000 customers today before the outages increased again.

On the transmission side, three lines were locked out, impacting customers of Santee Cooper, Horry Electric Cooperative and Santee Electric Cooperative.

Hurricane Florence has slowed and is now crawling to the west at 6 mph. Life-threatening storm surge, inland flooding, and wind damage are imminent along the coast of North Carolina from Wilmington to the Outer Banks and stretching to northern portions of South Carolina through the day on Friday. Florence is forecast to move southwest along the coastline before turning to the northeast on Sunday.

As Hurricane Florence slams North Carolina, the riverfront city of New Bern is already feeling the impacts. Emergency crews are attempting to respond to more than a hundred calls for rescues.

Amber Parker, spokesperson for Craven County, North Carolina, tells Here & Now‘s Jeremy Hobson that officials are happy to have daylight on their side Friday.

Updated at 1:50 p.m. ET

In the days leading up to the arrival of Hurricane Florence, North Carolina's governor offered a series of dire warnings.

"Even if you've ridden out storms before, this one is different," Gov. Roy Cooper said.

As Hurricane Florence made landfall, it appeared many North Carolinians had listened.