Showers will continue across much of South Carolina on Wednesday and for many on Thursday. We have been sandwiched between systems, so we can expect plenty of rain and a few thunderstorms to pass through the region as the final cold front pushes through the Palmetto state on Thursday. Flash floods are a risk, especially across the Upstate and the northern fringe of the Midlands.
Wednesday was a wet day across South Carolina. The showers arrived in the morning across the Midlands as a cold front pushed through the region. This cold front was weak and quickly followed by a low-pressure system moving over the Lowcountry. As a system slowly drags to the east, a warm front will arrive in the state from the southwest, bringing instability and plenty of moisture from the Gulf. This warm front is attached to the next low-pressure system, traveling over the state on Thursday. This system drags the final cold front of this series, which will put the icing on the cake regarding showers and isolated storms moving through on Thursday.
Between Wednesday and Friday night, up to 4 inches of rainfall is possible across Upstate South Carolina. The Midlands could receive between 1 and 2 inches, with some isolated spots, especially across the northern tier, around 3 inches. Up to 1.5 inches could fall in the Lowcountry, while the Pee Dee will likely get less than one inch.
This wet and slow-moving setup has prompted excessive rain alerts across parts of the southeast. The western half of South Carolina is either under a marginal risk or a slight risk of experiencing flash floods. The slight risk is about a 15% chance of experiencing flash floods within a 25-mile distance of a point extent through the deep south. The marginal risk, at least a 5% chance of experiencing flash floods within 25 miles of a point, extends around the slight risk area and to the Mid-Atlantic region, where Wednesday was a busy day when they experienced dangerous winter weather conditions.
Keep paying attention to the weather pattern because more will come this weekend. Although we will get a break between Thursday and Friday, the soggy and active weather will return to South Carolina on Saturday and likely on Sunday as the next system arrives in the area. This system will likely provide a similar setup that brings plenty of rain and will not likely move out until late Sunday night or early Monday morning. Rainfall totals could be very close to those we receive between Wednesday and Thursday. So remember that the totals mentioned above could repeat over the weekend. Still, they will be repeating over already saturated soils, which could rapidly increase the risk of flash floods once again as the ground is already fragile. We will bring you updates later this week.
