A potent storm system continues to move to the east and the risk of severe thunderstorms and flash flooding increases in South Carolina. There will be a few scattered showers statewide, but the severe risk increases from west to east, Upstate late Saturday night into Sunday morning. The rains will become more intense, and although the risk for severe weather decreases with the whole system moving eastward, there is still the chance for isolated tornadoes and flash flooding, especially for the Midlands and coastal areas.
Saturday into Sunday, severe weather threat
By Sunrise Sunday, showers and storms will be entering the Midlands. By noon, the Lowcountry will be experiencing thunderstorms, and the radar will quickly fill across the Pee Dee. By mid-afternoon, the weather will improve for Upstate and the Midlands, but more rain and a few scattered thunderstorms could be pushing through the region as another band could be sweeping in from the west late Sunday into Monday morning.
Overall, we are looking at the chance of flash floods. The chances are not great, but they are present. Our soil is dry, with 99 percent of the state dealing with at least abnormal drought and 78 percent with a moderate drought. Much of the Pee Dee is under a severe drought. Heavy rains with such dry soil could produce flooding more easily as it is tougher for the water to drain. So although the rain is welcomed, too much in a short time makes it extra dangerous.
Overall, the highest rainfall is forecast for Upstate, with some areas that could receive over 6 inches in some isolated spots. The rest of the state will receive between half to 2 inches of rain. Some isolated places on the coast could receive up to 3 inches as the rain could become more intense; plus, that second wave of energy will push through on Monday.
As we approach springtime, there is a risk of more periods of severe weather and outbreaks. Remember, this is due to the different air masses: still cold, dry air from northern latitudes crashing with warm, moist air from the south or southeast.