NOAA says the world has transitioned out of a La Niña pattern, into a neutral status, with an El Niño event expected to develop in the coming months.
The La Niña officially began in the central and eastern Pacific in September 2025, with cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures.
Since then, ocean temperatures have gradually warmed, prompting forecasters to change the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation to a neutral phase.
Forecast models project that an El Niño event is likely to emerge sometime over the summer and could persist well into 2027.
The transition out of the cold phase of the ENSO to its warm phase carries wide-ranging implications, affecting temperature and precipitation patterns as well as tropical cyclone activity around the globe.
Historically, El Niño events have been associated with some of the warmest global temperatures on record, but the impacts are not uniform everywhere.
In the United States, El Niños often lead to less oppressive temperatures during the summer with variable precipitation patterns.
Depending on the intensity of the event, El Niños have been linked to increased drought conditions across parts of the Southeast.
The climate pattern also has significant impacts on tropical cyclone activity around the globe.
Across the Atlantic basin, upper-level winds combined with slightly cooler water temperatures can make it more difficult for tropical cyclones to develop and intensify.
During an average Atlantic hurricane season, 14 named storms typically form, with seven reaching hurricane strength. However, during El Niño years, those figures can decrease by more than 30%, leaving seasons to be considered non-impactful.
The most recent El Niño occurred during 2023-24, and while the event was considered to be strong, it fell short of reaching what scientists refer to as a “super El Niño.”
While there is not a standard definition, super El Niños generally occur when the average water temperature is at least 2 °C or more above normal across critical parts of the Pacific.
In modern history, there have only been three recorded events of this happening but some computer models show the 2026-27 El Nino event reaching this status.
According to NOAA, El Niño events typically last anywhere from nine months to a year, with peak intensity often occurring during the winter months.
It is during the cold season that the most pronounced impacts are usually felt but no two El Niño events are exactly alike.
