A developing El Niño over the Pacific is expected to play a major role in shaping weather conditions across South Carolina and much of the country during the summer months.
During June, July and August, forecasters expect above-normal temperatures across nearly the entire United States, including much of the Southeast.
The highest confidence for significantly above-average temperatures appears to be centered over the Pacific Northwest with no area across the Lower 48 in store for a cooler than average summer.
On the precipitation front, South Carolina and much of the Southeast is expected to return to more of an average pattern after time periods of both deluges and droughts over recent weeks.
The seasonal outlook shows wetter signals focused over the Northeast and Southwest - likely caused by an enhanced monsoon season across the Four Corners.
Average summer rainfall across South Carolina typically ranges from around a foot across much of the Upstate to between 1 and 2 feet over coastal communities.
Climatologically, July is typically the wettest month of the year for inland cities such as Greenville and Columbia, where frequent afternoon showers and thunderstorms contribute to monthly rainfall totals.
Along the coast, August is traditionally the wettest month as tropical moisture becomes more abundant during the late summer and early fall.
Charleston typically sees nearly 7 inches of precipitation during August, while June, July and September all usually finish with more than 6 inches of rainfall.
What is unknown is if there will be any type of tropical activity which can skew seasonal outlooks.
A landfalling tropical cyclone can lead to well above-average rainfall totals while also producing stretches of below-normal temperatures due to the associated cloud cover and wet weather.
But with a strengthening El Niño helping shape global climate patterns, the odds of a direct impact from a tropical cyclone are considered to be low during the 2026 hurricane season.
Experts from both NOAA and Colorado State University expect the hurricane season to feature below-average activity, with increased wind shear and less favorable water temperatures taking a bite out of cyclone energy.
Meteorological summer begins on June 1 and runs through the end of August, while the first day of astronomical summer will begin on June 21 or what is otherwise known as the summer solstice.