The National Hurricane Center has officially labeled the disturbance as Tropical Depression Three. It is forecast to become Tropical Storm Chantal on Saturday morning as it moves north at 2 miles per hour, it can gain a bit more strength and reach maximum sustain winds of 40 mph, barely a tropical storm before reaching the South Carolina Coast, near Charleston late on Satuday night or shortly after midnight on Sunday.
A tropical storm watch is in effect from Edisto Beach, South Carolina, to Little River Inlet, South Carolina. This means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 48 hours. However, in this case, the watch should be upgraded to a warning tonight, as the system is forecast to make landfall late Saturday, and wind gusts will intensify as the day progresses. If you are on the coast, ensure you complete your preparations by Saturday morning. Gusts could exceed 45 mph at times.
This system will not last long over water, which will hinder its ability to intensify. Once the system moves overland, it will lose its tropical characteristics. While the system loses its tropical characteristics, it will continue to bring substantial tropical moisture to the southeastern United States. The biggest threats with this system will be heavy rain across the southeast, including southeast Georgia and the Carolinas.
The @nhc_atlantic has increased the chance of tropical development to 70 percent, considered high, over the next two days. The next name on the list is Chantal. Heavy rains are expected for the Pee Dee & a high rip current risk through Saturday evening. Stay off the water. pic.twitter.com/LyzrgTrWkQ
— SCETV (@SCETV) July 4, 2025
How much rainfall?
Forecast models indicate that the highest rainfall will remain mostly confined to the coastal areas of South Carolina and North Carolina. Anywhere from the Lowcountry through the coast of North Carolina could receive between two and 4 inches, but there could be some isolated spots that could receive over 6 inches of rain through Sunday.
Although the heaviest precipitation will remain over Atlantic waters, some of the heaviest rain showers could propagate northward and affect North Carolina primarily. Over the next five days, much of eastern North Carolina is expected to receive over 8 inches of rain.
Wind is not going to be a big issue with the system. Overall, the system remains disorganized, and since it will not linger over water for too long, it will not intensify. This will be mainly a rain event for the Carolinas. Please watch out for flooding. Avoid crossing flooded roads, as the water may be deeper than expected.
Marine hazards
Swimmers are asked to please stay out of the water, as there is a high risk of rip currents through Saturday evening across the coastal areas of South Carolina. Seas will also be rough, so boaters are expected to stay off the water.
We will continue to monitor the situation closely and provide you with updates promptly.