SCEIN

The large heat dome that has prompted the issuance of heat advisories and warnings over a large swath of the central and eastern United States is making its presence felt here in South Carolina.

Widespread temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, along with high humidity, will result in heat indices around 105 degrees over the Midlands and Low Country. The greatest combination of heat and humidity is forecast over the Pee Dee and Grand Strand regions, where the National Weather Service has issued heat advisories. Heat indices are forecast to reach 108 degrees in the advisory area.

Tropical Storm Barry is intensifying as it moves slowly toward the Louisiana Gulf coast.

Barry was located 100 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, according to the advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 am Friday. The warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico should encourage the system to intensify, but dry air high above the storm and wind shear have prevented rapid strengthening so far. Forecasters expect Barry to be near hurricane intensity as it makes landfall Saturday morning along the Louisiana coast.

The National Hurricane Center says the tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico is now Tropical Storm Barry, and it could become a hurricane before hitting Louisiana this weekend.

Update Thursday 2:30 pm ET:  Thunderstorms are blossoming across South Carolina at this hour.  The strongest activity was noted on radar north of Columbia, near Rock Hill and Lancaster, where several Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued.  Another strong cluster of storms have developed in the Pee Dee region just inland from Georgetown and Myrtle Beach.  The storms are expected to continue developing across the Palmetto State this afternoon, capable of producing wind damage, dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning and very heavy rain.  

The Tropical Atlantic Ocean has been quiet, and there are no signs of significant trouble anytime soon.

Water temperatures might be favorable for tropical development in some areas, but other conditions such as wind shear and dry, dusty air are likely to prevent tropical storms or hurricanes from developing during the first two weeks of July. In this “State of the Season” update, we will provide an overview of those conditions and trends we are watching that could influence the long range forecast in the tropics.

 Water Temperatures Vary

It was a stormy start to summer in South Carolina.  Severe thunderstorms damaged trees and knocked out power to thousands of residents on multiple occasions during the first offical week of the new season.

As June is winding down, the 7-Day rainfall forecast from the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center is showing generally dry conditions.

Update 7 pm Monday:  A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for the Upstate region through 1 am.  Strong storms are moving into the region and have the potential to produce damaging wind and hail.

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of GA, NC, SC, VA, WV until 1 AM EDT pic.twitter.com/lTO5gSp6ys

— NWS GSP (@NWSGSP) June 24, 2019

Clusters of thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop across the Palmetto State Saturday afternoon, posing a risk of wind damage and hail.

Update 5:15 pm Thursday: Severe storms are moving out of the Columbia metro area. However, they continue near North Augusta and are approaching Sumter. Additional storms are approaching Interstate 95 from the Florence area southward toward Berkeley and Dorchester counties. Damaging winds in excess of 60 mph, frequent lightning, and torrential rain are likely.

Storms will approach the Grand Strand (in Georgetown and Horry counties) between now and 6:30 PM.

Thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage are possible Tuesday afternoon in the South Carolina Upstate, including areas near Greenville, Spartanburg, and Clemson.

The storms are expected to develop mid-afternoon and become widely scattered by early evening. The strongest cells could produce wind gusts up to 60 mph, sudden downpours, frequent lightning, and small hail. Flash flooding could also occur in low lying areas with poor drainage, especially from cells producing high rainfall rates.

The Tropical Atlantic Ocean is quiet, which is typical for mid-June. However, uncertainty looms on how busy the season may become by August.

Drier weather has returned to South Carolina, and it could last for several days.

Last week's rain certainly eased drought conditions across some areas of the Palmetto State, but more rain is still needed in parts of the Lowcountry and Pee Dee regions.

Flash flooding is possible in the South Carolina Lowcountry Tuesday night and Wednesday, thanks to multiple rounds of showers and t-storms likely to hit the same areas over a short amount of time.

The risk of repeating rounds of heavy rain has forecasters in the South Carolina Upstate concerned about flash flooding.

Friday 12 pm Update: 

Rain showers have been widespread this morning along the border with North Carolina. Another round of scattered thunderstorms is expected across much of the state Friday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has placed the entire state in a "marginal risk" for severe thunderstorms. Forecasters at the center say the air may become unstable enough for a couple of thunderstorms to produce damaging winds and a brief, isolated tornado. For the most part, the storms are expected to mainly be a localized flooding threat with downpours. 

The drought in South Carolina's Lowcountry is now considered “severe”, but that's about to come to an abrupt end.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across South Carolina today as plenty of moisture and energy flows in from the west.

Isolated thunderstorms are beginning to pop up over the western Blue Ridge and far southern coast. These storms will become more scattered toward the end of the workday and could dot the state by the evening commute.

These thunderstorms could be strong and produce small hail, gusty winds, heavy downpours, and flash flooding. The risk of isolated tornadoes is low.  

Saturday marks the official start of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and the second named storm of the year could already be developing. However, it poses no current threat to the United States.

You might hear a collective sigh of relief across the Palmetto State this weekend. A cold - or maybe we should call it “not as hot” - front will finally bring an end to the historic heat wave that has scorched South Carolina.

The Palmetto State will be sizzling this Memorial Day Weekend, and the heat could be historic. Record highs dating back to the 1950's and 60's are in jeopardy of being broken or tied in several cities by Monday.

Triple-digit temperatures are forecast across the Midlands starting Saturday, with a high up to 101° possible in Columbia by Memorial Day. Even temperatures across the Upstate are expected to shatter records. Forecast highs in Spartanburg are 3 to 5 degrees above the daily records Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

UPDATE 7 PM MONDAY: The National Hurricane Center has begun advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea, the first named storm of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season. In a special statement issued just before 6 pm EDT, forecasters concluded that data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance indicated there was a “well-defined” center to the area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda.

As of Monday evening, Subtropical Storm Andrea had winds up to 40 mph and was located 335 miles southwest of Bermuda. The official forecast for Andrea called for slight strengthening Tuesday, followed by rapid weakening and dissipation near or just to the south of Bermuda Wednesday. Subtropical Storm Andrea is not a threat to the United States.

Thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage and small hail are expected across portions of South Carolina Saturday.

The activity will develop by mid-afternoon across the Midlands and Upstate regions as the atmosphere destabilizes during the warmest part of the day. More than one round of thunderstorm activity is possible in some areas through early evening.

Hurricane season is still a month away, but we're already watching a disturbance in the Atlantic.

Update at 4:00 PM: Tornado Watches continue for most of the state, but the watch has been canceled for parts of the Low Country (including Charleston, Beaufort, Walterboro, and Hilton Head).

Thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will move through the Grand Strand area between 4 and 6 PM. Another line of thunderstorms from near Greenville/Spartanburg southward to near North Augusta is moving northeast and may affect the Columbia and Rock Hill areas between 5 and 6 PM. So far, this second line of thunderstorms has not been as damaging as the first line. However, a Tornado Watch remains in effect and an isolated tornado or damaging winds cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain and lightning are still a threat with these storms.

UPDATE 1 PM SUNDAY: A Tornado Watch was issued by the National Weather Service for the Midlands and Upstate regions of South Carolina until 7 pm. The watch includes the cities of Columbia, Greenville, and Anderson, SC. 

UPDATE 3 PM MONDAY

Fewer hurricanes are expected this year than the last two seasons, according to renowned researcher Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University. However, both of those seasons far outperformed expectations.

Even Phil doesn't have much confidence in his forecast this time of year.

“So our skill in April is modest, and that's because the hurricane season doesn't start until June and then doesn't ramp up until August. So obviously there's a lot that could change in the atmosphere and ocean,” he says.

A coastal storm is forecast to form late tonight near the Northeast Florida coast and intensify as it hugs the South Carolina coast Tuesday morning. The impacts from the storm will be felt across most of the state, ranging from heavy rain and gusty winds over the Midlands, Low Country, and Pee Dee regions to the chance of snow or sleet mixing in with the rain over parts of the Upstate.

The sun was in rare form Monday across South Carolina. It was out the entire day!

Much of the state has experienced a prolong period of gloomy skies since the middle of the month. Columbia, for example, hadn't had a day with more than 50 percent sunshine since February 14th. The pattern finally broke Monday, as high pressure nosed in from the Ohio Valley and allowed drier, cooler air to spill in from the north.

Keep the umbrellas, rain jackets and galoshes handy. The extended forecast in upstate South Carolina is for rain, more rain. And then, more rain.

So much water may fall that flash flooding will be a concern, forecasters at the National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg office said in a special weather statement Sunday.

Scientists at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center have officially declared an El Niño. It is a natural warming over the water in the eastern and/or Central Pacific Ocean that occurs every 2 to 7 years. The El Niño is expected to be weak and forecasters at the government agency say there's only slightly greater than an even bet that it will even last through the spring.