SCEIN

Jerry is now a hurricane, making it the fourth of the 2019 season. And chances are increasing that it will not be a threat to the United States.

Hurricane Jerry has become significantly better organized over the past 24 hours, according to an update from the National Hurricane Center at 11 am Thursday. The category 1 storm had maximum sustained winds up to 75 miles per hour, and it was moving west-northwest at 16 mph.

Wednesday morning update:  Tropical Storm Imelda came ashore in southeast Texas Tuesday evening, but will continue to produce heavy rain and possible flooding as a remnant tropical low through the day Wednesday.  Tropical Depression Ten intensified overnight and became the season's tenth named storm, Tropical Storm Jerry.  

The original story, as published Tuesday afternoon, continues below.

The season’s eighth named tropical storm was classified by the National Hurricane Center late Friday night, but it is no longer a direct threat to South Carolina.

Hurricane hunters then found that the tropical storm had strengthened Saturday morning, and it now has winds up to 50 mph. Strong upper-level winds from the southwest were limiting the tropical storm’s ability to become better organized. However, those winds are expected to weaken Sunday when forecasters say Tropical Storm Humberto will be poised for intensification.

Update Friday 5 pm: The National Hurricane Center says Tropical Depression Nine has formed, located 240 miles east-southeast of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island.  A center of circulation was noted on the eastern side of a broad area of low pressure, based on satellite and hurricane hunter data.  The more eastward placement of that center prompted forecasters to make a significant adjustment to the forecast track for the soon-to-be tropical storm, which is now more than 100 miles from the coast of South Carolina early next week.

A significant change in the weather pattern that is steering Dorian is increasing the risk of at least some effects from the powerful hurricane in South Carolina later next week.

The storm continues as a powerful category 4 hurricane. Seasonably warm ocean temperatures and light wind shear — both of which are normally needed for intense hurricanes — are expected to fuel the storm for several more days.

Dorian strengthened to a category 2 storm Thursday night and forecasters say it’s expected to become a powerful category 4 hurricane this weekend as it draws closer to Florida.

The government of the Bahamas issued a Hurricane Watch for the northwestern Bahamas in advance of the hurricane’s arrival there Sunday and Sunday night.

Hurricane Dorian has strengthened late Wednesday night. As of 5 am, The National Hurricane Center says Dorian is about 150 miles north of San Juan, Puerto Rico and has top sustained winds near 85 mph. It is moving toward the northwest at about 13 mph.

Multiple reports of hurricane-force winds occurred near St. Thomas, as Dorian crossed the Virgin Islands Wednesday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Dorian has strengthened overnight as it steadily approaches Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. There is still uncertainty in the future path and intensity of the storm, but trends in the computer models are toward a stronger storm as it approaches the Southeast U.S. coastline Sunday or Monday.

Two tropical systems are churning through the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea in the weeks leading up to the climatological peak of the hurricane season: Tropical Storm Dorian and Tropical Depression Six.

Tropical Storm Dorian was moving through the Windward Islands Tuesday morning, and as of the 11 am advisory from the National Hurricane Center, was producing winds up to 50 mph. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the eastern third of the Dominican Republic.

Tropical Storm Dorian is moving steadily westward toward the Caribbean.

As of midday Monday, Tropical Storm Dorian was located 135 miles east-southeast of Barbados, and moving west-northwest at 14 mph. Tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the Windward Islands Monday evening, and the storm could become a hurricane over the northeast Caribbean by Tuesday evening.  

A tropical wave is becoming better organized just east of Miami, and the National Hurricane Center says a tropical depression or storm could form this weekend.

The system is not expected to be a significant threat to South Carolina, but periods of heavy rain and unsettled seas are possible along the immediate coast early next week.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center increased the odds of development to 90 percent in their 2 pm Friday tropical outlook.

System Likely Stays Offshore

More than 85 percent of all hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin occurs after the middle of August.

Some consider Aug. 15 as the “real” start to hurricane season. To others, like former FEMA administrator Craig Fugate, it’s synonymous with the start of football season.
 

Thunderstorms are likely to become more widespread across the Palmetto State over the next three days, thanks to an approaching front. The storms will provide some relief from the heat, but a few of them may become strong enough to produce damaging wind gusts and flash flooding.
 

The chances for above normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin this year have increased according to the newly-released seasonal update from NOAA.

The agency also said El Nino — a climate phenomenon that warms the water in the eastern Pacific Ocean and often reduces hurricanes in the Atlantic — has officially ended. This is the primary reason for the higher chance of more tropical activity.
 

The most active part of the hurricane season are the months of August, September, and October. In this “State of the Season” report, we will assess trends in atmospheric and oceanic conditions around the globe that may lend clues on how the waters could behave over the next few weeks.

The Season So Far