Weather

The Tropical Atlantic Ocean has been quiet, and there are no signs of significant trouble anytime soon.

Water temperatures might be favorable for tropical development in some areas, but other conditions such as wind shear and dry, dusty air are likely to prevent tropical storms or hurricanes from developing during the first two weeks of July. In this “State of the Season” update, we will provide an overview of those conditions and trends we are watching that could influence the long range forecast in the tropics.

 Water Temperatures Vary

It was a stormy start to summer in South Carolina.  Severe thunderstorms damaged trees and knocked out power to thousands of residents on multiple occasions during the first offical week of the new season.

As June is winding down, the 7-Day rainfall forecast from the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center is showing generally dry conditions.

Update 7 pm Monday:  A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for the Upstate region through 1 am.  Strong storms are moving into the region and have the potential to produce damaging wind and hail.

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for parts of GA, NC, SC, VA, WV until 1 AM EDT pic.twitter.com/lTO5gSp6ys

— NWS GSP (@NWSGSP) June 24, 2019

Clusters of thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop across the Palmetto State Saturday afternoon, posing a risk of wind damage and hail.

Thunderstorms capable of producing wind damage are possible Tuesday afternoon in the South Carolina Upstate, including areas near Greenville, Spartanburg, and Clemson.

The storms are expected to develop mid-afternoon and become widely scattered by early evening. The strongest cells could produce wind gusts up to 60 mph, sudden downpours, frequent lightning, and small hail. Flash flooding could also occur in low lying areas with poor drainage, especially from cells producing high rainfall rates.

The Tropical Atlantic Ocean is quiet, which is typical for mid-June. However, uncertainty looms on how busy the season may become by August.

Drier weather has returned to South Carolina, and it could last for several days.

Last week's rain certainly eased drought conditions across some areas of the Palmetto State, but more rain is still needed in parts of the Lowcountry and Pee Dee regions.

Flash flooding is possible in the South Carolina Lowcountry Tuesday night and Wednesday, thanks to multiple rounds of showers and t-storms likely to hit the same areas over a short amount of time.

The risk of repeating rounds of heavy rain has forecasters in the South Carolina Upstate concerned about flash flooding.

Friday 12 pm Update: 

Rain showers have been widespread this morning along the border with North Carolina. Another round of scattered thunderstorms is expected across much of the state Friday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has placed the entire state in a "marginal risk" for severe thunderstorms. Forecasters at the center say the air may become unstable enough for a couple of thunderstorms to produce damaging winds and a brief, isolated tornado. For the most part, the storms are expected to mainly be a localized flooding threat with downpours. 

The drought in South Carolina's Lowcountry is now considered “severe”, but that's about to come to an abrupt end.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across South Carolina today as plenty of moisture and energy flows in from the west.

Isolated thunderstorms are beginning to pop up over the western Blue Ridge and far southern coast. These storms will become more scattered toward the end of the workday and could dot the state by the evening commute.

These thunderstorms could be strong and produce small hail, gusty winds, heavy downpours, and flash flooding. The risk of isolated tornadoes is low.  

Saturday marks the official start of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and the second named storm of the year could already be developing. However, it poses no current threat to the United States.

You might hear a collective sigh of relief across the Palmetto State this weekend. A cold - or maybe we should call it “not as hot” - front will finally bring an end to the historic heat wave that has scorched South Carolina.

The Palmetto State will be sizzling this Memorial Day Weekend, and the heat could be historic. Record highs dating back to the 1950's and 60's are in jeopardy of being broken or tied in several cities by Monday.

Triple-digit temperatures are forecast across the Midlands starting Saturday, with a high up to 101° possible in Columbia by Memorial Day. Even temperatures across the Upstate are expected to shatter records. Forecast highs in Spartanburg are 3 to 5 degrees above the daily records Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

UPDATE 7 PM MONDAY: The National Hurricane Center has begun advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea, the first named storm of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season. In a special statement issued just before 6 pm EDT, forecasters concluded that data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance indicated there was a “well-defined” center to the area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda.

As of Monday evening, Subtropical Storm Andrea had winds up to 40 mph and was located 335 miles southwest of Bermuda. The official forecast for Andrea called for slight strengthening Tuesday, followed by rapid weakening and dissipation near or just to the south of Bermuda Wednesday. Subtropical Storm Andrea is not a threat to the United States.